FIRST EVENING UPDATE:  JUNE 27,  2008

Posted at 7:21 p.m. ET

JOURNALISM?

This is the kind of thing that gives journalism a bad name.  Under the guise of "news analysis," The New York Times and its writer, Steven Lee Myers, launch an undisciplined attack on President Bush, cherry picking facts to support a point of view that belongs on the editorial page.  There are some real gems here:

WASHINGTON — North Korea’s declaration of its nuclear activities is a triumph of the sort of diplomacy — complicated, plodding, often frustrating — that President Bush and his aides once eschewed as American weakness.

In more than two years of negotiations, the man who once declared North Korea part of an “axis of evil” with Iran and Iraq, angrily vowing to confront, not negotiate with, its despotic leader, in fact demonstrated a flexibility that his critics at home and abroad once considered impossible.

That is why Mr. Bush is likely to receive only grudging credit, if any, for the accomplishment, which could turn out to be the last significant diplomatic breakthrough of his presidency.

Say what?  The North Korean declaration is a "triumph"?  We haven't even read the contents yet.  Unlike Mr. Myers, the administration is proceeding cautiously. 

And note that the president "angrily" vowed to confront North Korea.  In fact, the six-power talks with that country have been going on for quite some time.  I don't recall the president "angrily" saying anything. 

Earth to Mr. Myers:  The president will receive "grudging credit" for the Korea deal for the same reason he's getting "grudging credit" for the surge.  The Bush haters will grant him nothing. 

And "breakthrough" isn't an appropriate term when dealing with a regime that has cheated before.  We'll see.

History will not judge Mr. Bush as a dove, even if North Korea steps back from the nuclear threshold. The war in Iraq and his sanction of aggressive tactics in the war on Al Qaeda and other terrorists will shape his legacy more than anything he accomplishes diplomatically.

But his second term has featured far more pragmatism and far less confrontation in matters of national security than his first...

Myers already knows how "history" will judge?  Maybe real history will say that the president advanced peace by confronting real evil before it grew too powerful. 

And "the war in Iraq and his sanction of aggressive tactics in the war on Al Qaeda and other terrorists will shape his legacy..."  Sanction of aggressive tactics against terror?  This is bad?  Apparently so.  Maybe Mr. Myers would have preferred a hug or two.

The White House is now pursuing a similarly painstaking multilateral strategy for resolving the international confrontation over Iran’s nuclear activities.

Now?  How long have the European talks with Iran, with our blessing, been going on?  How many years?

Prospects for achieving an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord this year already appear to have diminished, hobbled by internal Israeli politics. Iran, despite new sanctions by the European Union, appears to be stalling for time — and a new administration.

I knew it!  It's all Israel's fault.  Why if Israel would just elect a Jimmy Carter, all would be well.  Hamas - just a blameless onlooker. 

And Iran is stalling for time.  They wouldn't be doing this if only Ahmadinejad were sleeping in the Lincoln bedroom.  Right?

“The last six months in the administration is the wrong time to present these ideas,” said Jon Wolfsthal, a proliferation expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who credited the president for his evolution on North Korea and other issues.

“The Bush administration, to put it mildly, is digging itself out of holes in a number of areas: North Korea, Iran, Iraq, the Middle East. We’ll be lucky to get back to par.”

Note that Mr. Bush has gone through an "evolution," a favorite term of liberals for anyone who moves in their direction.  You know, the president evolved from the ape state. 

And where are the holes the president has dug?  His firmness with North Korea may - repeat may - pay off, if the Koreans don't cheat again. 

Where is the hole with Iran?  What could we have offered that would have made them give up their nuclear program?  Iraq seems to be working. 

And getting back to par?  You mean, to where we were when Clinton left office and we were about to be attacked?  Is that par?  To certain "experts," apparently it is.

This is appalling, slanted journalism.  As for "analysis," a high-school kid could do better, because he or she would probably think more clearly.

June 27, 2008.      Permalink          

SECOND AFTERNOON POST:  JUNE 27, 2008

Posted at 4:06 p.m.

RULE OF LAW?

More political correctness from the nation that once stood alone against Nazism:

LONDON: Muslim passengers may not be touched by sniffer dogs of the British Transport Police after complaints that the practice is against Islam. According to the religion, dogs are deemed to be spiritually “unclean."

A Transport Department report has raised the prospect that animals should only touch passengers’ luggage because it is considered “more acceptable," the Daily Express reported. The ban may restrict the efficiency of sniffer dog squads which have been trained to spot terrorists at railway stations.

On Thursday night, British Transport Police insisted that they would still use sniffer dogs with any passengers regardless of faith, but handlers would remain aware of “cultural sensitivities."

You know, you'd think this number of years after 9/11 that some rules would have been worked out.

Let me tell you a story:  During my journalism days I went down to the New York Medical Examiner's (coroner's) office to interview Dr. Milton Helpern, a legendary figure and one of the fathers of modern forensic medicine.  During our conversation a clergyman called.   He was distraught because an autopsy was to be performed on one of his parishioners, but the deceased's religion forbade it.  Courteously, but firmly, Dr. Helpern explained that the civil law required an autopsy because of the circumstances of death, and that this was a situation in which the civil law had to prevail over religious custom.  The clergyman backed down.

Conflicts between religion and state are common, but in Western societies we have a long tradition that civil law must prevail, especially when there is suspicion of a crime.  It is remarkable to see the extent to which political correctness and a blind multiculturalism have blurred that tradition.  It's time we got back to it. When explained correctly, the great majority of citizens accept it, and no one religion, including Western religions, should be exempt.

June 27, 2008.        Permalink             

AFTERNOON POST:  JUNE 27,  2008

Posted at 1:48 p.m. ET

POLLS

Three new polls are out.  Our two usual trackers are unchanged from yesterday, once again showing the stability of the race at this point.  Rasmussen has Obama up four over McCain, but Gallup again shows a tie.

Time now has a poll also showing Obama up four.  You'll recall that Newsweek and L.A. Times/Bloomberg have reported a much larger gap.  Time's agreement with the tracking polls would seem - stress seem - to suggest that the trackers are right.  Time reports:

After five months of bruising primaries, Obama's lead now is narrower than the one he held over McCain in TIME's poll this past February: 48% to 41%, including leaners. The bright spot for Obama is with Latino voters, a group he overwhelmingly lost to Clinton in the primaries, but now leads 51% to 34% over McCain. Among Catholics, another group Obama struggled with in Democratic primaries, McCain leads Obama 57% to 43%.

The two split Independents, a target demographic for both campaigns, with 44% supporting Obama and 43% McCain's. Obama overwhelmingly won the likability contest with 58% of respondents saying he's more likeable to McCain's 23%. Obama also led McCain among women 45% to 39%.

The Obama lead among Hispanics is surprising, and disturbing for the GOP, which has courted Hispanics for years.  As an Arizona senator who is sensitive to Hispanic issues, McCain should be doing better with that group.

However, it is remarkable, given the disadvantage for Republicans this year, that McCain is so close.  Obama has been heavily covered.  He and his wife are regularly on magazine covers.  But he is far from clinching the deal.  McCain can pull this out.  I think the odds are against him, especially as Obama's team won't be dormant in the coming months, but a combination of effective campaigning, and, very frankly, world events, can work to his favor.

June 27, 2008.      Permalink          

FRIDAY:  JUNE 27,  2008

Posted at 6:58 a.m. ET

GOODBYE, ROSE

It's been evident for some time that the bloom is off Obama's rose.  The glisten started to fade during the race with Hillary Clinton when the Illinois senator started acting, you know, political.  Now even the rose seems to be wilting.  Obama has done more policy flip flops than an Olympic swimmer.  But Charles Krauthammer notes that it hardly seems to matter.  A kiss may be just a kiss, but a saint remains a saint:

Obama's long march to the center has begun.

And why not? What's the downside? He won't lose the left, or even mainstream Democrats. They won't stay home on Nov. 4. The anti-Bush, anti-Republican sentiment is simply too strong. Election Day is their day of revenge -- for the Florida recount, for Swift-boating, for all the injuries, real and imagined, dealt out by Republicans over the past eight years.

And...

Worry about the press? His FISA flip-flop elicited a few grumbles from lefty bloggers, but hardly a murmur from the mainstream press. Remember his pledge to stick to public financing? Now flush with cash, he is the first general-election candidate since Watergate to opt out. Some goo-goo clean-government types chided him, but the mainstream editorialists who for years had been railing against private financing as hopelessly corrupt and corrupting evinced only the mildest of disappointment.

And...

I have never had any illusions about Obama. I merely note with amazement that his media swooners seem to accept his every policy reversal with an equanimity unseen since the Daily Worker would change the party line overnight -- switching sides in World War II, for example -- whenever the wind from Moscow changed direction.

Finally...

Why, the man even tossed his own grandmother overboard back in Philadelphia -- only to haul her back on deck now that her services are needed. Yesterday, granny was the moral equivalent of the raving Reverend Wright. Today, she is a featured prop in Obama's fuzzy-wuzzy get-to-know-me national TV ad.

Not a flinch. Not a flicker. Not a hint of shame. By the time he's finished, Obama will have made the Clintons look scrupulous.

But remember, he'll save us from BUSH.  Bush's conniving, his sneakiness, his...  Wait.  Can't use those words anymore.  Okay, he's great looking and speaks well.  Anything wrong with that? 

June 27, 2008.      Permalink          

McCAIN'S PLAN

Obama's flips have given McCain the chance to shape a new campaign strategy, according to Jonathan Martin in The Politico:

After weeks of criticism from Republicans about the leisurely pace at which they seemed to be preparing for the general election, McCain’s campaign has apparently settled on a highly personal campaign theme that aims to differentiate McCain and Obama on both character and issues.

The strategy: Paint Obama as conventional politician who always takes the safe and easy political road, then amplify the distinction by framing McCain as a patriot, somebody who has put sacrifice above self.

It’s seemingly an effort by McCain to remind voters of his Vietnam-era heroism and compelling life story while touching on key issues to avoid running purely on biography. The message also is designed to underline McCain’s unique record of service to his country without touching on subterranean questions about Obama’s patriotism.

It's a solid beginning, if executed well.  One problem:  The Vietnam war ended 33 years ago, and most young people are taught that it was a failure.  (It's more complicated than that, but that's what they're taught.)  Count 33 years after World War II, and you come to 1978.  A World War II record was virtually meaningless by then, and Jimmah Carter was in the White House, having defeated Navy combat vet Gerald Ford. 

More.  Quoting McCain adviser Steve Schmidt:

“When John McCain was offered early release as a prisoner of war, he refused, subjecting himself to torture rather than give a propaganda victory to his captors,” Schmidt writes. “Is it any wonder that during the Republican primary, John McCain was working with Democrats and talking about the need for comprehensive immigration reform?”

Obama, Schmidt contends, has never picked the harder right over the easier wrong.

“In his time on the national stage, he has consistently put his party and his self-interest first,” he writes, citing energy and Iraq as two issues where Obama is constrained by the base of his own party.

Schmidt also seeks to use the same self-interest frame to bruise Obama for his decision to reverse course on taking public funding to finance his campaign and for not being willing to engage McCain in multiple town hall meetings.

Finally...

In a clear sign of the desire of McCain’s campaign to drive this message, (Mitt) Romney, who has emerged as one of McCain’s most frequent and on-message surrogates, appeared on three television morning shows to make the case.

"He has consistently voted with his party on the most partisan issues and put his party and personal interests ahead of those of the nation," Romney said of Obama on CNN's "American Morning." "I think [he's] been unable during his career at any time to reach across the aisle, find compromise, find ways to get things done other than simply toeing the party line."

All right.  It's going to take much more, like coming up with an imaginative energy program that brings the quickest possible relief to voters.  But at least the McCain people are getting out there.  In a strange way, Obama is helping them.  But remember that Obama, being the operator that he is, may well find a way to maneuver out of his growing image as a conventional pol with a silver tongue.  He didn't get this far, this fast, by sitting on his hands.

June 27, 2008.       Permalink          

BUT PEGGY SAYS...

Peggy Noonan has become a mite controversial on the right, with some people saying she's erratic, others fearing that she's turned on the GOP under Bush.  But she's written a delightful and refreshing column on what she thinks McCain should do, and how she thinks the campaign will progress.  It's old Noonan.  McCain, she says, should be McCain, unleashed:

Let McCain be McCain. Get him in the papers being who he is, get people looking at his real nature. Maybe then they'll start taking him seriously when he talks policy. Maybe he'll start taking himself seriously when he talks policy.

The most interesting thing about Mr. McCain has always been the delight he takes in a certain unblinkered candor. There is also the antic part of his nature, his natural wit, his tropism toward comedy. All this was captured wonderfully by Mark Leibovich last February in the New York Times. Mr. McCain had taken the lead in the primaries and had gone from being "one of the most disruptive forces in his party" to someone playing it safe. In an airplane interview he said things like, "There is a process in place that will formalize the methodology." Then he couldn't help it, he became McCain:

"[He] volunteered that Brooke Buchanan, his spokeswoman who was seated nearby and rolling her eyes, 'has a lot of her money hidden in the Cayman Islands' and that she earned it by 'dealing drugs.' Previously, Mr. McCain had identified Ms. Buchanan as 'Pat Buchanan's illegitimate daughter,' 'bipolar,' 'a drunk,' 'someone with a lot of boyfriends,' and 'just out of Betty Ford.'"

That's my boy. That's the McCain his friends love, McCain unplugged. The fall will be dead serious. At this point why not be himself, be human? Let him refind his inner rebel, the famous irreverent maverick, let the tiger out of the cage.

And...

Everyone in New York is saying, "What will happen?" "How do you see it?" "Who will win?" In this year of all years, who knows? My sense of it:

The campaign will grind along until a series of sharp moments. Maybe they will come in the debates. Things will move along, Mr. Obama in the lead. And then, just a few weeks out from the election, something will happen: America will look up and see the inevitability of Mr. Obama, that Mr. Obama has already been "elected," in a way, and America will say, Hey, wait a second, are we sure we want that? And it will tighten indeed.

The race has a subtext, a historic encounter between the Old America and the New, and suddenly the Old America—those who are literally old, who married a guy who fought at the Chosin Reservoir, and those not so old who yet remember, and cherish, the special glories of the Old—will rise, and join in, and make themselves heard. They will not leave without a fight.

And on that day John McCain will suddenly make it a race, as if moved by them and wanting to come through for them one last time. And then on down to the wire. And then . . .

You know, maybe Peggy has it right.  The man I want to see standing there at a victory press conference the morning after election is John McCain, even if he does introduce his spokeswoman as Pat Buchanan's illegal daughter.  Serves Pat right.

June 27, 2008.      Permalink